The European central bank‘s firepower is sadly depleted.
欧洲中央银行的火力遗憾耗尽。
The interest rate on the reserves that banks hold with it is sub-zero;
银行的存款准备金率低于零;
its quantitative-easing (QE) scheme has hoovered up assets worth 2.6trn euro ($2.9trn)—
其量化宽松（QE）计划已获得了价值2.6万亿欧元（2.9万亿美元）的资产—
equivalent to over a fifth of the euro area’s GDP. Even so, in June Mario Draghi, the bank’s boss,
相当于欧元区GDP的五分之一以上。即便如此，今年6月，央行行长马里奥·德拉吉
promised further stimulus if the economy does not buck up. Statistics published since then suggest little recovery.
承诺如果经济不振作起来，将采取进一步的刺激措施。自那以后公布的统计数据显示，经济几乎没有复苏。
Cue much speculation about another attempt to revive growth.
这引发了人们对再次试图重振经济增长的猜测。
Many expect an announcement at the bank’s meeting in September, along with updated economic forecasts.
很多人期待在9月份的银行会议上宣布这一消息，同时发布最新的经济预测。
But its next gathering on July 25th could still surprise, or at least lay the groundwork for stimulus.
但其7月25日的下一次会议仍会有惊喜，或者至少会为刺激经济打下基础。
With individual instruments nearing limits, it is expected to deploy a combination.
随着个别财政工具将接近极限，预计央行将部署一个组合。
Of late its weapon of choice has been guidance on the path of interest rates.
最近，其武器选择一直是利率走势的指引。
It has promised to keep rates steady for longer, at least until mid-2020.
其已承诺在更长时间内保持利率稳定，至少会持续到2020年年中。
But markets expect rates not merely to stay on hold, but to fall—by a tenth of a percentage point, from -0.4%, in coming months.
但市场预期利率不仅没有保持不变，还下降了—在接下来的几个月里，从-0.4%下降0.1个百分点。
Banks complain that negative interest rates shrink their margins: they have to pay the central bank to hold their deposits,
银行抱怨负利率降低了它们的利润率：他们必须付钱给中央银行来持有他们的存款，
but fear that if they pass negative rates on, their depositors will withdraw their cash.
但他们担心，如果他们把负利率传递下去，他们的储户就会提现。
Profits and lending both fall, preventing the rate from transmitting to the real economy.
利润和贷款双双下降，阻止了利率传递至实体经济。
For now, the ECB reckons it has not reached the "effective lower bound"—
目前，欧洲央行（ECB）估计它还没有达到“有效下限”—
the point at which the expansionary effects of negative interest rates stop outweighing any costs.
在这个点上，负利率的扩张效应应不再超过任何成本。
But unwanted side-effects may appear as rates go lower.
但随着利率下降，可能会出现不必要的副作用。
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未经允许不得转载：杂烩网 » 经济学人下载:欧洲中央银行的探索(1)
